CES 2009 preview: Computers and hardware
The annual consumer electronics show isn't always a hotbed of new laptops, desktops, and accessories. After all, Apple likes to hold its own shows on its own schedule, and most big PC makers target their new products for the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
That being said, there are several big trends in the computer industry that will be prevalent on the show floor.
Netbooks: Almost every major manufacturer of laptops has tried to blow off the Netbook trend as a flash in the pan. Why? These small, low-cost systems have lower margins than the $1,000-plus laptops people have been buying for years. But sales trends can only be ignored for so long, so the last half of 2008 saw virtually every major player in the game--Dell, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, etc.--jump on board with sub-$500 Netbooks. At CES, look for the next generation of systems, as PC makers try to both jack up prices with higher-end models with unique features, or lower prices on the average usable configuration from $499 to $399 or less.
Computer as lifestyle appliance: Sure, companies have tried to merge the idea of a computer and a home or lifestyle appliance for years (and honestly, the iPhone has done it better than anyone else), but we expect to see more attempts to make an otherwise standard PC stand out as either a household appliance or a portable do-it-all media device. Will it work? Only if they learn from the guys who spent millions developing high-end UMPCs and low-end dumb e-mail terminals, neither of which took off with the public.
Airport-friendly laptop cases: Talk about an unexpected hit. Starting in September, laptop bag makers introduced split-open butterfly style cases, designed to let you run a laptop through the airport X-ray machine without taking it out. Not only have we seen a ton of these already, but reports indicate that TSA agents actually know the drill on how to use them. Look for more entries in this category in 2009.
Gaming? Not so much: Sure we'll see the latest revisions of the major graphics cards, and even some notable improvements in the graphics capabilities of laptops, but very few major gaming rigs-- and some major players, like Alienware--will be making only a cameo appearance at the show.
Next-gen CPUs: Look for some new chips to power everything from Netbooks to high-end desktops. Will AMD and Intel swap positions as industry leader again? Or, does it even matter, since the popularity of Netbooks and other low-end computers hints that the public may have finally figured out they've been paying for more performance than they need for years?
Windows 7: Vista, we hardly knew ye. Expect the next phase of the gradual public introduction to the next Microsoft operating system to kick off during CES.
New York native Dan Ackerman, a former radio DJ turned journalist, has written about technology and music for publications including Spin, Blender, The Hollywood Reporter, and USA Today. He hosts the weekly Digital City podcast and the New York edition of Editors' Office Hours. Dan's new album, Tales Out of Night School, is available now. E-mail Dan.


Windows 7 will be well received, I wouldn't be surprised if all computers at CES 2009 will be running the BETA 1 demo for all to try and possibly take home. Vista is not bad, its just that it has a reputation because of how it debuted on the market. But OEM's have improved the experience by delivering systems that should have been released in January of 2007 with the OS. The first SP1 and SP2 next year will further change those perceptions.
Consumer confusion with computers isn't unusual, but there have been a lot of companies that had successfully sold subcompact laptops for years that used various low voltage processors that had a large tradeoff in performance in order to maximize battery life. I will agree that netbooks will never realistically make larger and more traditional form factors like 15.4" laptops go away, but a lot of people's needs haven't grown as quickly as processing power of CPUs.
There are a lot of people for which the processing power of the Atom based netbooks is good enough. While I don't think that they will ever become the norm I wouldn't be surprised at <$300 a student that even a lot of cash strapped schools will be able to afford a 1:1 computer to student ratio. While they would be rather anemic for some HS students who might need more processing they have sufficient processing power for a lot of applications many schools are using.
I will agree with you that I see "netbooks" as simply another category like desktop replacement along a broad spectrum of everything from downright tiny laptops like Fujitsu's 5.6" U series to 20" desktop replacements catering everything from the person who simply wants something basic to jot down notes and browse the web to someone who wants to edit HD video far away from their desktop.
The only thing really novel is the low price point for a sub 10" notebook. Historically, almost anything below 10" are >$1000 as opposed to <$500. The big resistance I see is against Linux netbooks is the limit what most retail stores can possibly sell for accessories (ie. no AV subscriptions, no anti-spyware subscriptions, no sales of M$ Office, etc.) Furthermore, to actually offer extended warranties they would actually have to train their techs to use linux, which may be difficult considering how little they pay their "techs." I haven't asked any retailers how they have done with netbooks, but somehow I doubt they are selling many service plans on netbooks. Save for a case and maybe an extra battery there isn't a lot to add to a netbook sale. I think at least in the near term I think Linux won't do as well as some may think.
-
by ppgreat
January 3, 2009 2:37 PM PST
- I got the opportunity to play with an Acer netbook over the holidays, or more accurately, try to troubleshoot why the wireless would not work.
-
Like this
Reply to this comment
-
(6 Comments)Drove me nuts! Didn't fit on my lap well. Tiny screen. Even tinier keyboard. Personally, I don't understand the appeal. I use laptop to get work done, not so I can stash something in my purse.