CES 2009

The annual consumer electronics show isn't always a hotbed of new laptops, desktops, and accessories. After all, Apple likes to hold its own shows on its own schedule, and most big PC makers target their new products for the back-to-school and holiday seasons.

That being said, there are several big trends in the computer industry that will be prevalent on the show floor.

Netbooks: Almost every major manufacturer of laptops has tried to blow off the Netbook trend as a flash in the pan. Why? These small, low-cost systems have lower margins than the $1,000-plus laptops people have been buying for years. But sales trends can only be ignored for so long, so the last half of 2008 saw virtually every major player in the game--Dell, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, etc.--jump on board with sub-$500 Netbooks. At CES, look for the next generation of systems, as PC makers try to both jack up prices with higher-end models with unique features, or lower prices on the average usable configuration from $499 to $399 or less.

Computer as lifestyle appliance: Sure, companies have tried to merge the idea of a computer and a home or lifestyle appliance for years (and honestly, the iPhone has done it better than anyone else), but we expect to see more attempts to make an otherwise standard PC stand out as either a household appliance or a portable do-it-all media device. Will it work? Only if they learn from the guys who spent millions developing high-end UMPCs and low-end dumb e-mail terminals, neither of which took off with the public.

Airport-friendly laptop cases: Talk about an unexpected hit. Starting in September, laptop bag makers introduced split-open butterfly style cases, designed to let you run a laptop through the airport X-ray machine without taking it out. Not only have we seen a ton of these already, but reports indicate that TSA agents actually know the drill on how to use them. Look for more entries in this category in 2009.

Gaming? Not so much: Sure we'll see the latest revisions of the major graphics cards, and even some notable improvements in the graphics capabilities of laptops, but very few major gaming rigs-- and some major players, like Alienware--will be making only a cameo appearance at the show.

Next-gen CPUs: Look for some new chips to power everything from Netbooks to high-end desktops. Will AMD and Intel swap positions as industry leader again? Or, does it even matter, since the popularity of Netbooks and other low-end computers hints that the public may have finally figured out they've been paying for more performance than they need for years?

Windows 7: Vista, we hardly knew ye. Expect the next phase of the gradual public introduction to the next Microsoft operating system to kick off during CES.

As the holidays approach, we're thinking about more than gift shopping and spiking the eggnog; we're thinking about CES, which looms soon after New Year's Day. Though cell phones tend to play a supporting role at CES, I guarantee that we'll see a few new handsets debuting. Of course, Apple always shuns the event for its own Macworld--it runs the same week as CES--but most of the major players will be in Sin City. Since most announcements are shrouded in secrecy until the show opens, we don't have anything firm to report just yet. But if we had a crystal ball, this is what we would see:

Touch-screen phones
If there was a trend in 2008, it was touch-screen phones. Including the uberhyped iPhone, we saw a mass of touch models, particularly during the latter half of the year. They included smartphones like the Samsung Omnia and the LG Incite, but also mid-range phones like the Samsung Eternity and Behold. We suspect the touch-screen phenomenon will probably continue into the new year. We'll be hitting up all the major players at CES to see what they have up their sleeves, and you never know what might spring up.

Camera phones
Though camera phones have taken a back seat to music phones over the last couple of years, they're now back with a vengeance. Recently, we reviewed three high-end camera phones: the 5-megapixel Motorola ZN5, the Sony Ericsson C902, and the 8-megapixel Samsung Innov8. Only the ZN5 landed at a U.S. carrier. It offers integrated Wi-Fi for easy photo uploading. We expect to see camera phones get even better in 2009; and CES will be the beginning. And don't worry, music fans, as you should see some new handsets, too. The Motorola Rokr E8 was born at CES last year and it won our Best of CES award in the cell phones category.

Messaging phones
Messaging phones took off in a big way in late 2008. And when we say messaging phones, we're talking about handsets built for texting rather than complicated smartphones. Indeed, we saw eight such handsets this fall and we don't expect the trend to stop anytime soon. Look for more messaging phones at CES in a variety of styles.

Smartphones
With the releases of the T-Mobile G1, RIM BlackBerry Storm, Sony Ericsson Xperia X1, and other notable devices, 2008 was a big year for smartphones, so can it possibly be outdone? Of course. While we don't expect to see too many new models at CES 2009, we're looking forward to getting some hands-on time with the hot Nokia N97 to find out if it's really worth all the buzz.

On the Android front, Sony Ericsson just announced that it will be coming out with Google Android smartphones in summer 2009. In Las Vegas, we'll be picking the company's brain to see what it has in mind. We'll also talk with HTC, which plans to have a whole portfolio of Android devices by summer. We also should see developments with the Android platform itself, including new applications and features.

Bluetooth headsets
Due to the relatively recent hands-free driving laws sweeping the nation, we'll see even more Bluetooth accessories than ever. We'll see headsets of all shapes and sizes, and in-car speakerphones will take off, too. We also think stereo Bluetooth will be a standard in most, if not all, headsets.

This year's CES will bring the usual array of extremely large, easy-to-blog HDTVs, although we're not sure anybody will top the 150-inch Panasonic plasma from last year. More interesting is a group of new trends that, compared with items like "1080p" and "HDMI 1.3" from previous years, could actually prove exciting. OK fine, they're nothing compared with Macworld, but they're as exciting as HDTVs get.

Philips' Eco TV, the 2008 Best in Show winner, heralds a 'green TV' trend in 2009.

(Credit: Philips)

Eco-friendly: Oil prices might be falling with the financial crisis, but with a new, more environmentally conscious president and general belt-tightening, the American public may finally be ready to factor power consumption into a TV-buying decision. The new Energy Star ratings rolled out in late 2008 will help separate the wastrel TVs from the misers, but as with dishwashers, we expect most TVs to bear the little blue logo in 2009. More TV makers will market "green TVs" than ever, and with some of the technologies below, especially OLED and LED, they could improve efficiency even further.

Internet connectivity: 2008 saw a rash of TVs with the capability to stream video, music, and photos over a network, along with some models from Panasonic and Samsung that display news, weather, business information, and other Internet content onscreen. In 2009, we will see further interactive capabilities, perhaps including Netflix streaming or access to online video sites like Hulu. Web video displayed on an actual TV seems like a no-brainer, and given the fractured market perhaps we're being overly optimistic. But it sure would be cool.

OLED: No display technology is cooler than OLED. Sony was first to market with a consumer OLED TV, the 11-inch XEL-1, and we expect the company to announce a larger screen size, perhaps as big as 30 inches, this year. Samsung will also join the fray. But don't expect these sets to be affordable or widely available anytime this year--or next.

LED: Much more accessible than OLED, LED backlights combined with standard LCD technology will be out in force in 2009. We've heard that one manufacturer wants to create a separate market segment called "LED TV," to separate these more-expensive, better-performing models from their non-LED LCD brethren. Samsung, Sony, and LG, at least, will expand their LED lineups in 2009, and prices will definitely fall as production ramps up.

240Hz: As the marketing logic goes, if 120Hz is good, 240Hz has to be twice as nice, right? Not really, but that higher number sure looks impressive on a spec sheet, and Sony is already selling a 240Hz LCD in its KDL-52XBR7--which, in case you don't want to click through, did not perform twice as well. Nonetheless, Samsung and LG will likely up the Hz ante in 2009 as well.

Dejudder processing: Currently widely available in 120Hz LCDs, the ability to smooth out motion, known as "dejudder," will probably migrate in force to plasma, standard 60Hz LCDs, and rear-projection, too. If you like that smooth effect feel free to rejoice, but we'll probably stick with leaving it Off, thank you.

Ultrathin flat panels: Last year's CES included a number of even flatter flat-panel LCD TVs, like the Hitachi UT37X902, and we expect abuse of the phrase "thin is in" to grow during this year's show coverage. Ultrathin technology may also make its way to plasma models this year. Of course, the difference between the standard 3 or so inches thick panel and "ultrathin" models 1 inch thick or less isn't going to sway many buyers to pay extra, but that won't stop manufacturers from pushing thin anyway.

DTV transition: We'd be remiss if we didn't mention that about a month after CES the country will go through the transition from analog to digital TV. A few manufacturers will probably take advantage of the transition to market portable DTV-ready sets or even TVs with built-in DVRs that can record digital over-the-air programming. Seriously, if you have over-the-air TV, streaming Netflix and Hulu, why keep cable?

What new HDTV technology do you want to see announced at this year's CES? Let us know in comments.

I expect a flood of digital photo frames at CES.

(Credit: Kodak)

CES has always been a much bigger show for camcorders than cameras, and you can expect to see announcements from all the manufacturers--major and minor--with their product line refreshes for the first half of 2009. This year, that means far fewer new models supporting the dying MiniDV and DVD formats and a broader selection of flash- and hard-disk-based models for both the standard- and high-definition markets. Naturally, the latter formats will come in increased capacities as well. The interesting stuff usually happens at the low and high ends; in this case, I'm curious to see if more of the mainstream manufacturers (besides Kodak with its Zi6) embrace the cheapo mini camcorder trend. And if they do, can they get it right?

There's usually less to see for cameras; most of those CES announcements tend to be for the budget or style lines, or for models with a bit of a novelty spin. In that respect, I don't expect anything particularly out of the ordinary. That said, look for some more implementation improvements in wireless support.

And despite Kodak's recent OLED frame offering, there probably won't be many other OLED entrants in this space quite yet. Instead, there'll likely just be boatloads more of the same commodity LCD models.

TeleNav Shotgun

(Credit: Corinne Schulze/CBS Interactive)

Portable navigation devices (PNDs) continued to draw a lot of interest in 2008 as more and more consumers became aware of the advantages of in-car GPS and they became more affordable. We think prices will continue to drop in the new year since the market is oversaturated with these navigation aids and the GPS manufacturers compete to get new customers. However, it's going to take more than an alluring price tag to keep the industry going.

With most PNDs offering the same core features and with the pressure and increasing popularity of GPS-enabled cell phones and location-based services, GPS manufacturers are having to step up their game by coming up with new technologies and features. That's why we expect to see more connected devices like the Dash Express and TeleNav Shotgun in 2009, bringing the most up-to-date maps and real-time data to drivers at all times. Finally, we believe voice commands, traffic capabilities, advanced lane guidance, and 3D building/landmark renderings will continue to makes their way to more and more GPS.

Polk Audio's SurroundBar 360 was one of CES 2008's top home audio offerings.

(Credit: Polk Audio)

The 2009 Consumer Electronics Show will be the sixth consecutive CES event I've attended. And for most of those, we've had to write up previews of what we're expecting or anticipating at the show as a whole, or in one category. Looking back at those pieces, you can see how far a lot of the technology has come in just half a decade (2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008). Indeed, plenty of features, options, and product categories we take for granted today didn't really exist just five years ago. But you can also note how some predictions seem to keep resurfacing year after year--without ever really coming to fruition.

Perhaps the biggest vaporware offering in the home audio realm is wireless speakers. Several vendors have promised wireless surround systems in years past, but to date, mass-market-friendly solutions remain few and far between. We'll no doubt see several companies touting wireless loudspeaker solutions at this year's show, but just remember that true wireless speakers are pretty much a pipe dream--without some sort of battery power, the speakers themselves are still going to need at least one cable--the power cord.

Network audio is another perennial "next big thing" at CES. This one's actually entering the category of a maturing technology at this point. Plenty of standalone products--from the multiroom Sonos, the more affordable Logitech Squeezebox line, and even the Apple TV--have pretty much perfected the network audio experience, and Wi-Fi radios which can tune in online radio stations from around the world are well under $200. In addition to more dedicated network audio products, look for more network-friendly AV devices to incorporate audio streaming as a feature (such as Rhapsody on TiVo and Pandora of the Samsung BD-P2550 Blu-ray player).

Somewhat related is satellite radio. With federal approval of the XM/Sirius merger, the unified company can begin touting its consolidated programming offerings and--perhaps--begin to discuss hardware that can access content from both XM and Sirius satellites. But the fact that the company is now a penny stock will weigh heavily, as will the troubled U.S. auto industry--the sales from which traditionally drove satellite radio subscriber growth.

Being iPod- and iPhone-ready is another feature that went from a major value-added to a default bullet point over the course of the past decade. While nearly every home audio product now has an Apple-compatible dock built-in (or available as an add-on), look for companies to up the ante with tighter integration--such as using on-TV menus to navigate an iPod's video and audio directories, or using the iPod Touch or iPhone as a full-on remote control via Wi-Fi.

Blu-ray compatibility will undoubtedly be a buzzword in 2009. It was only about a year ago (CES 2008, in fact) that Blu-ray dealt a knockout punch to archrival HD DVD, becoming the default high-def disc format of choice. Last year, home theater systems with integrated Blu-ray were the exception to the rule. In 2009, look for it to the be standard in high- and even mid-level home theater systems--with full-on BD-Live functionality to boot.

Look for single-speaker audio and virtual surround products to again dominate the major brands' audio lineups. The '09 products will likely be offered at more accessible prices than ever before--probably starting at the sub-$500 range, instead of closer to $800 or $1,000. (Check out our current virtual surround champs--with with video connectivity and without.)

If you're noticing that nothing there is particularly new compared to previous years, you're absolutely correct. The home audio category remains the red-headed stepchild of the consumer electronics landscape, wedged uncomfortably between eye-popping flat-panel TVs and increasingly indispensable cell phones and portable devices.

I'm of the opinion that most of these product categories have plateaued to a large degree. That's why I'd really like to see the manufacturers get back to the basics. How about an AV receiver that's actually easy to set up and use? Yes, it could still be bristling with inputs and outputs, but give it an onscreen interface like the Apple TV. Or have an onscreen wizard talk you through the steps of connecting the cables, as seen on the Vudu, TiVo, or Sling products. (Sony porting its PS3-style Cross Media Bar interface to its receivers and TVs is a nice start, but I consider that to be the jumping off point.)

A home theater system that was easy to set up, easy to use, and had a menu system that was in plain English instead of technojargonese? That would be an easy pick for Best of CES.

Hey, there's always next year.

For the last few years, the format war between HD DVD and Blu-ray monopolized home video coverage at CES. Now that HD DVD is dead, we can finally get back to focusing on new technology, rather than which studios are backing which format. Blu-ray should have a big presence, along with its new competitors, Internet-powered video-on-demand boxes.

Blu-ray goes mainstream

Blu-ray isn't just for home theater geeks anymore.

It's hard to believe, but just one year ago, HD DVD was selling tons of $99 players, Blu-ray players cost an unreasonable $400 or more, and we were advising buyers to hold off going Blu because the format wasn't quite ready yet. Since then, Blu-ray has made huge leaps, with standalone players available for less than $250 and a feeling of inevitability in the consumer electronics world.

That trend is likely to continue, with Blu-ray becoming truly mainstream in 2009. We wouldn't be shocked to see a $150 standalone Blu-ray player announced or home theater systems with built-in Blu-ray hitting the $500-and-below price point.

On the innovation side, we have to imagine we'll see standalone players start including Wi-Fi rather than the standard Ethernet connection. This will make it easier to access not only BD-Live, but also any additional streaming services available, such as Netflix or Pandora streaming. 2009 maybe also be the year we see Blu-ray recorders hit the US, although if the rumors are true prices are likely to pretty high. Less likely, but still possible, would be some early attempts at portable Blu-ray players, allowing you to take your new movie collection on the road.

Netflix is everywhere

The end of 2008 has seen a string of new devices featuring support for Netflix's Instant Streaming functionality, including Blu-ray players, TiVos and even the Xbox360. This year we expect to see the Netflix Instant Streaming logo on nearly everything with a video output, including budget HTIBs and possibly even some DVD players. The biggest announcement in this area would be Netflix announcing substantial deals to get more titles available for streaming, but that's probably unlikely.

The $100 Hulu box

It's become obvious to nearly everyone that one of the next big things in the home video space is finding a way to make online video content easy to access in your living room. Around CNET offices, it's referred to as "the Hulu box" and we fully expect companies to roll out hardware that tries to accomplish this. While the SlingCatcher already does this to some extent, it costs $300--we're more interested in a low-cost ($100) solution, using something like the boxee software to get our internet video fix. We also wouldn't be shocked to see to see existing products like the TiVo HD or Xbox 360 get upgrades in this direction.

Wireless HDMI materializes from the vapor?

In our CES wrap-up blog last year, we speculated that "wireless in-home HD video is getting closer to the mass market." Oops. Aside from Sony's super-expensive DMX-WL1 and Samsung's "wireless plasma", basically all the products we saw last year never came to fruition. Given how little progress was made in making the wireless dream a reality, this prediction is probably more of a wish, but we'll definitely at least see companies promising this technology.

The Kama Wireless Nunchuk was our favorite gaming product from last year's show.

(Credit: Nyko)

While last year's CES didn't offer much in terms of gaming, it would appear that CES 2009 has a lot more in store. This is partially thanks to the Nintendo Wii, which has not only solidified itself as the best-selling console of this generation, but because the system lends itself so well to third-party accessories. We expect to see plenty of new products announced exclusively for the Wii from companies like Mad Catz and Nyko.

It's possible that Microsoft may reveal some new info regarding the Xbox 360 hardware. Rumors of a Blu-ray drive continue to swirl, so it's always a long shot.

Sony will certainly have a presence at this year's CES, so we hope to see some new information regarding the console as well. With the PlayStation 3 now in full swing, we'd imagine the company will show off some first-party accessories, possibly even an announcement about Remote Play, which lets you use your PSP along with your PS3 in real-time gaming scenarios.

With Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 both heavily invested in digital media, we think a lot of third-party manufacturers will announce new solutions for managing your content as well as new ways to stream the multimedia to your console of choice.

Of course we expect to see dozens of new entries for all consoles in terms of charging solutions and alternative game controllers, so be sure to check with us every day of the event for the latest and greatest from the showroom floor.

Clarion shows off the ClarionMind at CES, a connected GPS device that gives much more than directions.

(Credit: Clarion)

For the second year, CES devotes its North Hall to automotive technology, showing the growing interest in electronics for the car. As we would expect, stereo manufacturers such as Alpine and JVC will be showing new in-dash products, expanding the idea of what the traditional stereo head unit can do. GPS and Bluetooth hands-free devices will also have a heavy presence, with connected GPS devices making an appearance as a new trend. We are also looking forward to seeing innovative new in-car services, such as Internet radio, satellite TV, and new digital music options.

At our CNET Car Tech stage in the North Hall, we will be conducting live tests of car stereos and other car equipment. And don't miss our games, where winning at Name That Tune or Engine Karaoke can earn you valuable prizes.

(Credit: Digeo)

Remember Digeo's Moxi? After spending years in development, the DVR start-up was aiming to go head-to-head with TiVo by offering a DVR system optimized for sharing home recordings between multiple rooms in the home. We even got to see a demo and thought it looked pretty good. But it's a tall order to sell consumers on paying for a DVR--even one with some compelling value-added features--when they're used to leasing one that's "good enough" from their cable company with no up-front cost. The last we heard was that Digeo hit a rough patch (even before the current financial crisis), and canceled its then-current DVR products.

But blogger Dave Zatz has spotted what appears to be a new Moxi HD DVR. The updated model seems to offer all of the standard DVR accouterments (dual HD tuners, CableCard support) and a few TiVo-style extras (expandable storage, remote scheduling, Flickr access, and music streaming). Gone--or at least unmentioned--are an over-the-air tuner and room-to-room video streaming.

Right now, Digeo is selling the Moxi DVR directly to consumers through Amazon. But the $800 price tag will undoubtedly induce sticker shock. That's without a TiVo-style subscription fee (at least for now), but your cable company will still be taking its pound of flesh with CableCard rentals, service fees, and franchise fees. Meanwhile, Moxi lacks the growing boatload of Internet-delivered subscription and pay-per-view features that TiVo's been amassing to distinguish itself from generic cable DVRs (Netflix, Rhapsody, CinemaNow, Live365, and YouTube).

Digeo's expected to launch the new Moxi officially at CES 2009. Perhaps then we'll get more clarification as to how the company expects to compete at that price point. Until then, I'd say an $800 DVR has a tough row to hoe.

Zatznotfunny: Digeo unveils new Moxi HD DVR
Moxi.com: Moxi HD DVR product page